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Statistical Model in Excel - Bankroll Management for Sports Betting

I am betting on sports with high volume. For this task you need to understand the basics of sports betting which I explain below and have a strong expertise in statistical modelling.

The idea is to develop an understanding about my bankroll management – i.e. create an overview about my risk and size of drawdowns, risk of ruin and expected gains. Your analysis will be used to understand

a) Risk and size of drawdowns

b) Amount of money to be bet

I would like to understand the statistical distribution about my scenario (normal distribution?) + be able to run Monte Carlo scenarios where I can actually analyze the differing outcomes. This should be all be done in Excel.

The task:

I would like a dynamic model developed in Excel where I can adjust the following parameters:

- Average size of bets

- Average Odds

- Expected ROI

- Bankroll

- Turnover

- Expected ROC

From this dynamic model I want to understand my risk of ruin, my expected drawdowns and my potential gains.

Based on the above I would like to understand how much further betting volume I can add over time without increasing my risk to lose (X% part) of my bankroll. Another model should be created for this. A graphical illustration with charts and histograms would be useful.

Sports Betting basics:

Odds: 10

Means: For every 1 EUR bet, you get 10 back, consequently you have 9 EUR gain if you win the bet or you have lost 1 EUR if the bet was lost.

Odds of 10 means 1/10= 10% chance of winning the bet as per the bookmaker estimation (and of course 90% chance of losing the bet). Always the inverse of the odds is the probability.

Turnover: If you bet for example 10 x 10 EUR = 100 EUR is your betting turnover

ROI = Return on Investment. If you have for example an ROI of 5%, you expect to win 50 EUR for every 1000 EUR bet on average. If your betting turnover is 100 EUR, you expect to win 5 EUR.

Bankroll = The amount of money you have to bet. If = 0, you’re bankrupt.

ROC = Return on Capital. If your initial bankroll is 1000 EUR and you win 100 EUR, your ROC is 100/1000 = 10%

Drawdown = Loss from top to bottom without reaching a new high

Stake = Amount of money to be bet

Risk of ruin = Risk of losing your total bankroll

Taidot: R-ohjelmointikieli, SPSS Statistics, Tilastoanalyysi, Tilastotiede

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Tietoa työnantajasta:
( 1 arvostelu ) Zürich, Switzerland

Projektin tunnus: #17574702

18 freelanceria on tarjonnut keskimäärin %project_bid_stats_avg_sub_18% %project_currencyDetails_sign_sub_19%/tunti tähän työhön

schoudhary1553

Hello, Hope you are doing well. I can help with you in your project Statistical Model in Excel - Bankroll Management for Sports Betting. I can assure you the quality job. I have good experience in R Programmin Lisää

€10 EUR / tunti
(21 arvostelua)
5.6
alifarrukh786

I did not read your requirement in details, once you inbox me, I will read, plus I offer first hour free consultancy and after that, you can either hire me or look for another freelancer, skpy alifarrukh786

€10 EUR / tunti
(37 arvostelua)
5.1
EngrShahidul

I am experience SPSS, Minitab. Excel. Presentation, Power pivot table, regression (Trend line) & correlation analysis, statistical test, linear programming, formula creation, graph creation and report writing. You m Lisää

€10 EUR / tunti
(30 arvostelua)
4.7
rajeshkumararora

Hello I have excellent background in maths and statistics and more than 20 years of experience in simulations that include MC analysis. I am confident of doing a good work for you. Thanks.

€10 EUR / tunti
(10 arvostelua)
4.2
olaideejiwole

I have Masters degree in Economics and Statistics. I also have 7years of professional experience working as a Quantitative Analyst (in the field of Statistics). A professional statistical analyst seeking opportunity t Lisää

€12 EUR / tunti
(9 arvostelua)
4.2
usmanhassan123

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€12 EUR / tunti
(19 arvostelua)
4.3
Statxn

As an: 1- engineer in statistics and applied economic 2- specialized technician in Microsoft Office (graduated from Microsoft: Diploma MOS), I am available, able and ready to do this type of work in the best condit Lisää

€9 EUR / tunti
(9 arvostelua)
3.7
prefectworld

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€12 EUR / tunti
(2 arvostelua)
3.0
androaiad

Hello dear, I am a M.Sc. Researcher. I am expert in Excel so I can help you for sure in your task. Thanks

€6 EUR / tunti
(3 arvostelua)
2.6
Echecsxn

engineer in statistics and economics applied and technician in microsoft office. I am ready and able to do this job

€8 EUR / tunti
(3 arvostelua)
1.3
yjping1986

€100 is enough to complete your project. I fully understood the requirement of your project. I’ll complete your project ASAP. My key skill is Data & image processing in Excel, MATLAB, Minitab, SPSS, R & LabVIEW - Lisää

€6 EUR / tunti
(1 arvostelu)
1.3
dataanalyt

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€11 EUR / tunti
(0 arvostelua)
0.0
Translatron

I am a Six Sigma Master Black Belt and I believe I can generate this model

€12 EUR / tunti
(0 arvostelua)
0.0
davidcastillo10

Hello, I am an actuary and I have knowledge and experience of statistics, montecarlo simulations, and I also have great experience working in excel and programming macros. I am willing to work on this project. Greeting Lisää

€10 EUR / tunti
(0 arvostelua)
0.0
dispet4er

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€7 EUR / tunti
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0.0
Realitypunting

Hi, My name is Jason and I bet on a professional level on Basketball, mainly on the NBA, WNBA and Australian NBL. I am very experienced in betting as I turn over 7 figures a year between betting and trading. I create m Lisää

€17 EUR / tunti
(0 arvostelua)
0.0
DmitrNik

hello i have oddsportal account [login to view URL] for testing some betting ideas [betting streaks] could be the basis for choosing odds from 10+ .. thats very actual for total ov Lisää

€7 EUR / tunti
(0 arvostelua)
0.0
herguz2017

Hi how are you I can help you in your project, I am a university professor in mathematics and calculus. I teach calculus classes at the University of Zulia in my country Venezuela. I can solve several multivariable Lisää

€10 EUR / tunti
(0 arvostelua)
0.0